William R. Graham
Security,
North Korean EMP Weapons: Is America Vulnerable?
Analysts comparable Jack Liu and Jeffrey Lewis are ought exist commended though their favour can educating the public nearly North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs and endeavoring ought equip their readers with “informed analysis.”
However, can a progression of trend articles, both analysts cause written off the possibility of a nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) assault from North Korea though “unlikely” and “science fiction” though they deem the 10 ought 20 kiloton nuclear weapons currently possessed by North Korea are incapable of making an effective EMP attack. This dismisses the consensus implication of EMP experts who cause advanced degrees can physics and electric engineering across with few decades of sustain can the field—with access ought classified news throughout that time—and who cause conducted EMP tests above a broad kind of electrical systems, beginning can 1963.
(This first appeared can 38 North here.)
By mode of background, the committee ought impose the danger ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse assault was established by assembly can 2001 ought caution the Congress, the President, the department of Defense and other departments and agencies of the US Government above the nuclear EMP danger ought military systems and civilian critical infrastructures. The EMP committee was re-established can 2015 with its let broadened ought learn usual EMP from solar storms, complete manmade EMP threats, cyber-attack, sabotage and Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare. The EMP committee let gives it access ought complete relevant classified and unclassified news and the force ought levy analysis upon the department of Defense.
In the favour of perfect informing 38 North readers nearly the EMP threat, we offer this commentary ought right errors of fact, analysis, and myths nearly EMP.
Primitive and “Super-EMP” Nuclear Weapons are Both EMP Threats
The EMP committee finds that even primitive, low-yield nuclear weapons are such a significant EMP danger that rogue states, comparable North Korea, or terrorists can well excellent using a nuclear weapon though EMP assault instead of destroying a city.[1] can its 2004 report, the committee cautioned: “Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can exist employed ought generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects above broad geographic areas, and designs though variants of such weapons can cause been illicitly trafficked though a quarter-century.”
In 2004, two Russian generals, both EMP experts, warned the EMP committee that the create though Russia’s super-EMP warhead, able of generating high intensity EMP fields of 200,000 volts per meter, was “accidentally” transferred ought North Korea, and that due ought “brain drain,” Russian scientists were can North Korea, helping with their missile and nuclear weapon programs. South Korean military notice told their review that Russian scientists are can North Korea helping mature an EMP nuclear weapon. can 2013, a Chinese military commentator stated North Korea has super-EMP nuclear weapons.[2]
Super-EMP weapons are low-yield and designed ought create no a large kinetic explosion, still quite a high flat of gamma rays, which generate the high-frequency E1 EMP that is most damaging ought the broadest range of electronics. North Korean nuclear tests—including the first can 2006, which was predicted ought the EMP committee two years can confront can by the two Russian EMP experts—mostly cause yields compatible with the size of a super-EMP weapon. The Russian generals’ right prediction of when the North used to carry out its first nuclear test, and the crop being compatible with a super-EMP weapon, indicates their warning nearly a North Korean super-EMP weapon ought exist taken identical seriously.
EMP danger from Satellites
While most analysts are fixated above when can the future North Korea will mature highly reliable intercontinental ballistic missiles, guidance systems, and reentry vehicles able of outstanding a US city, the gift danger from EMP is chiefly ignored. An EMP assault does no ask an right guidance system though the region of effect, having a radius of hundreds or thousands of kilometers, is hence large. no reentry vehicle is needed though the warhead is detonated can high-altitude, above the atmosphere. Missile reliability matters small though only one missile has ought vocation ought create an EMP attack.
For instance, North Korea could create an EMP assault against the United States by launching a short-range missile off a freighter or submarine or by lofting a warhead ought 30 kilometers fracture altitude by balloon. still such lower-altitude EMP attacks used to no cover the full US mainland, though used to an assault can higher-altitude (300 kilometers), even a balloon-lofted warhead detonated can 30 kilometers altitude could blackout the Eastern Grid that supports most of the population and generates 75 percent of US electricity.
Moreover, an EMP assault could exist made by a North Korean satellite. The create of an EMP or even a super-EMP weapon could exist relatively few and lightweight, resembling the US W-79 Enhanced Radiation Warhead nuclear artillery bullet of the 1980s, designed can the 1950s. Such a equipment could understanding interior North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-3 (KMS-3) and Kwangmyongsong-4 (KMS-4) satellites that instantly orbit the Earth. The south polar trajectory of KMS-3 and KMS-4 evades US Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radars and National Missile Defenses, resembling a Russian secret weapon developed during the cool War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) that used to cause used a nuclear-armed satellite ought create a amaze EMP assault above the United States.[3]
Kim Jong Un has threatened ought decrease the United States ought “ashes” with “nuclear thunderbolts” and threatened ought retaliate though US diplomatic and military strain by “ordering officials and scientists ought complete preparations though a satellite launch though directly though possible” between “the enemies’ vulgar sanctions and moves ought stifle” the North.[4]
Addressing Misinformation
Recent assessments by Jeffrey Lewis and Jack Liu regarding North Korea’s EMP capabilities cause some basic flaws.[5]
For starters, can his article, Jeffrey Lewis claimed that “just one string of road lights failed can Honolulu” during the 1962 Starfish excellent high-altitude nuclear test, and that this is proof of EMP’s harmlessness.[6] can fact, the EMP knocked out 36 strings of road lights, caused a telecommunications microwave relay station ought fail, burned out HF (high frequency) radio links (used though long-distance communications), place off thief alarms, and caused other damage. The Hawaiian Islands also did no sustain a catastrophic protracted blackout though they were above the distant margin of the EMP domain contour, where effects are weakest; are surrounded by an ocean, which mitigates EMP effects; and were however can an era dominated by vacuum subway electronics. can addition, the slow pulse (E3) constituent of the EMP waveform only couples effectively ought identical lack electric force transmission lines gift above large continents, still were can short equip can Hawaii.
Starfish excellent was no the only examination of this kind. Russia, can 1961-62, also conducted a progression of high-altitude nuclear bursts ought examination EMP effects above Kazakhstan, an industrialized region nearly though large though Western Europe.[7] That examination damaged the Kazakh electric grid.[8] Moreover, contemporary electronics, can isolate though they are designed ought operate can much lower voltages, are much more vulnerable ought EMP than the electronics of 1962 exposed ought Starfish excellent and the Kazakh nuclear tests. A though EMP incident above the US today used to exist an existential threat.[9]
In his article, Lewis also suggested that vehicle traffic used to digest backward an EMP incident based above the fact that only 6 of 55 vehicles were end down by a only simulated EMP examination above vehicles.[10] However, the EMP examination protocol limited testing vehicles only ought upset, no ought damage, though the EMP committee could no provide ought mend damaged cars. even with this limitation, one vehicle was however damaged, indicating that can least 2 percent of vehicles were severely affected by EMP damage. above 50 years of EMP testing indicates that complete domain wreck ought vehicles used to perhaps exist much higher than 2 percent. contemporary vehicles are even more susceptible ought EMP assault though of their much larger complement of electronics than gift can the vehicles tested by the committee more than a decade ago. Furthermore, vehicles cannot jog without fuel and gas stations cannot operate without electricity. Gas pumps could also exist damaged can an EMP attack.
In an article by Jack Liu, he asserts can a footnote that though EMP from atmospheric nuclear tests can Nevada did no blackout Las Vegas, consequently EMP is no threat. However, the nuclear tests he describes were complete endo-atmospheric tests that carry out no generate appreciable EMP fields beyond a range of nearly 5 miles. The high-altitude EMP (HEMP) danger of favour requires exo-atmospheric detonation, can 30 kilometers altitude or above, and produces EMP out ought ranges of hundreds ought thousands of miles.
Liu also miscalculates that “a 20-kiloton bomb detonated can optimum altitude used to cause a maximum EMP wreck distance of 20 kilometers” can part, though he assumes “15,000 volts/meter or higher” can the E1 EMP constituent is indispensable though damage. This schedule is an utmost overestimation of system wreck domain thresholds. wreck and agitate ought electrical systems will happen from E1 EMP domain strengths distant beneath Liu’s “15,000 volts/meter or higher.” A one meter cord connected ought a semiconductor device, such though a mouse string or interconnection cable, used to place hundreds ought thousands of volts above microelectronic devices out ought ranges of hundreds of miles though low-yield devices. Based above our sustain with many EMP tests, semiconductor junctions operate can a little volts, and will sustain breakdown can a little volts above their operating point, allowing their force equip ought break exposed junctions.
Furthermore, Liu ignores system agitate though a vulnerability. Digital electronics can exist agitate by extraneous pulses of a little volts. though unmanned dispose of systems gift within the electric force grid, long-haul traffic repeater stations, and gas pipelines, an electrical agitate is tantamount ought perpetual damage. momentary agitate of electronics can also cause catastrophic consequences though military operations. no electronics ought exist considered invulnerable ought EMP unless hardened or tested ought certify survivability. Some highly-critical unprotected electronics cause been agitate or damaged can simulated EMP tests, no can “15,000 volts/meter or higher,” still can danger levels distant beneath 1,000 volts/meter.
Therefore, even though a low-yield 10-20 kiloton weapon, the EMP domain ought exist considered dangerous though unprotected US systems. The EMP committee 2004 illustrate warned against the US military’s increasing use of commercial-off-the-shelf-technology that is no protected against EMP: “Our increasing dependence above advanced electronics systems results can the latent though an increased EMP vulnerability of our technologically advanced forces, and if unaddressed makes EMP career by an adversary an attractive asymmetric option.”[11] The North Korean missile examination above April 29, which apparently detonated can an altitude of 72 kilometers, the optimum height-of-burst though EMP assault by a 10 KT warhead, used to create a potentially damaging EMP domain spanning an estimated 930 kilometer radius [kilometers radius = 110 (kilometers fracture altitude ought the 0.5 Power)], no Liu’s miscalculated 20 kilometer radius.
US Vulnerabilities ought EMP
When assessing the latent vulnerability of US military troops and civilian critical infrastructures ought EMP, it is indispensable ought exist mindful of the complicated interdependencies of these highly-networked systems, though EMP agitate and wreck of a identical few fraction of the full system can effect full system failure.[12]
Real clay failures of electric grids from various causes mean that the Congressional EMP Commission, US department of Defense, US Federal energy Regulatory committee (FERC), US department of Homeland Security, and US Defense danger Reduction Agency are precise that a nuclear EMP assault used to cause catastrophic consequences. significant and highly-disruptive blackouts cause been caused by single-point failures cascading into system-wide failures, originating from wreck comprising distant less than 1 percent of the full system.[13]
In compare with ought blackouts caused by single-point or small-scale failures, a nuclear EMP assault used to inflict gigantic widespread wreck ought the electric grid, causing millions of failure points. With little exceptions, the US national electric grid is unhardened and untested against nuclear EMP attack. can the incident of a nuclear EMP assault above the United States, a widespread protracted blackout is inevitable. This normal sensation assessment is also supported by the nation’s best computer modeling.[14]
Thus, even if North Korea only has primitive, low-yield nuclear weapons, and if other states or terrorists obtain one or a little such weapons also though the capability ought detonate them can an altitude of 30 kilometers or higher above the United States. As, the EMP committee warned above a decade ago can its 2004 Report, “the wreck flat could exist sufficient ought exist catastrophic ought the Nation, and our contemporary vulnerability invites attack.”
William R. Graham served though principal Ronald Wilson Reagan's Science Advisor, Acting Administrator of the National Aeronautics and space Administration (NASA), and Chairman of the Congressional EMP Commission.
[1] John S. Foster, Jr., Earl Gjelde, William R. Graham, Robert J. Hermann, Henry M. Kluepfel, Richard L. Lawson, Gordon K. Soper, Lowell L. Wood, Jr., and Joan B. Woodard, illustrate of the committee ought impose the danger ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Volume. 1: Executive illustrate (Washington DC: EMP Commission, 2004), 2.
[2] Peter V. Pry, Statement ago the United States Senate Subcommittee above Terrorism, Technology, and Homeland Security Hearing above Terrorism and the EMP danger ought Homeland Security: “Foreign Views of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack,” March 8, 2005, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109shrg21324/pdf/CHRG-109shrg21324.pdf.; Min-sek Kim and Jee-ho Yoo, “Military Source Warns of North’s EMP Bomb” JoonAng Daily, September 2, 2009; Daguang Li, “North Korean Electromagnetic assault Threatens South Korea’s news campaign Capabilities” Tzu Chin, June 1, 2012, 44-45.
[3] Miroslav Gyűrösi, “The Soviet Fractional Orbital Bombardment System Program,” attitude force Australia, January 27, 2014, http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Sov-FOBS-Program.html.
[4] Alex Lockie, “North Korea threatens ‘nuclear thunderbolts’ though US And China at final vocation together,” affair Insider, April 14, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-us-china-nuclear-thunderbolt-cooperation-war-2017-4; “US General: North Korea ‘will’ mature nuclear capabilities ought conquer America,” Fox News, September 20, 2016, www.foxnews.com/world/2016/09/20/north-korea-says-successfully-ground-tests-new-rocket-engine.html.
[5] Jeffrey Lewis, “Would A North Korean space Nuke indeed place litter ought the U.S.?” New Scientist, www.newscientist.com/article/2129618; Lewis quoted can Cheyenne MacDonald, “A North Korean ‘Space Nuke’ Wouldn’t place litter ought America” daily Mail, can 3, 2017, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4471120/A-North-Korean-space-nuke-WOULDN-T-lay-waste-America.html.; Lewis interviewed by National Public Radio, “The North Korean Electromagnetic Pulse Threat, Or lack Thereof,” NPR, April 27, 2017, www.npr.org/2017/04/27/525833275.; “NPR hosts grin hysterically still America surplus can the cross hairs of a North Korean nuclear warhead EMP apocalypse,” usual News, can 1, 2017, www.naturalnews.com/2017-05-01-npr-laughs-hysterically-north-korean-emp-nuclear-attack.html.
[6] Lewis, “Would A North Korean space Nuke indeed place litter ought the U.S.?”
[7] High-altitude EMP (HEMP), the marvel beneath discussion, results from the detonation of a nuclear weapon can high-altitude, 30 kilometers or higher. complete nuclear weapons, even a primitive Hiroshima-type A-bomb, can create levels of HEMP damaging ought contemporary electronics above large geographic regions.
[8] According ought electric Infrastructure Security Council, Report: USSR Nuclear EMP Upper Atmosphere Kazakhstan examination 184, (www.eiscouncil.org/APP_Data/upload/a4ce4b06-1a77-44d-83eb-842bb2a56fc6.pdf), citing inquiry by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, a though EMP incident above the U.S. today “would responsible wreck nearly 365 large transformers can the U.S. force grid, leaving nearly 40 percent of the U.S. population without electric force though 4 ought 10 years.”
[9] Foster, et al., illustrate of the committee ought impose the danger ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, Volume. 1: Executive Report, 4-8.
[10] Lewis, “Would A North Korean space Nuke indeed place litter ought the U.S.?”
[11] Ibid., 47.
[12] John S. Foster, Jr., Earl Gjelde, William R. Graham, Robert J. Hermann, Henry M. Kluepfel, Richard L. Lawson, Gordon K. Soper, Lowell L. Wood, Jr., and Joan B. Woodard, illustrate of the committee ought impose the danger ought the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack: critical National Infrastructures (Washington, D.C.: EMP Commission, April 2008), http://www.empcommission.org/ docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf.
[13]For example, the large Northeast Blackout of 2003—that place 50 million nation can the gloomy though a day, contributed ought can least 11 deaths, and price an estimated $6 billion—originated from a only failure point when a powerline contacted a tree branch, damaging less than 0.0000001 (0.00001%) of the full system. The New York city Blackout of 1977, which resulted can the capture of 4,500 looters and injury of 550 police officers, was caused by a lightning confront above a substation that tripped two circuit breakers. India’s nationwide blackout of 2012—the largest blackout can history, effecting 670 million people, 9% of the clay population—was caused by overload of a only high-voltage powerline.
[14]Modeling by the US FERC reportedly assesses that a terrorist assault that destroys just 9 of 2,000 EHV transformers–merely 0.0045 (0.45%) of complete EHV transformers can the US national electric grid–would exist catastrophic damage, causing a protracted nationwide blackout. Modeling by the Congressional EMP committee assesses that a terrorist nuclear EMP attack, using a primitive 10-kiloton nuclear weapon, could break dozens of EHV transformers, thousands of SCADAS and electrical systems, causing catastrophic collapse and protracted blackout of the US Eastern Grid, putting can danger the lives of millions. though the best unclassified modeling assessment of responsible wreck ought the US national electric grid from nuclear EMP assault see: US Federal energy Regulatory committee (FERC) Interagency Report, coordinated with the department of Defense and Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Electromagnetic Pulse: Effects above the U.S. force Grid, Executive digest (2010); FERC Interagency illustrate by Edward Savage, James Gilbert and William Radasky, The Early-Time (E1) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its collision above the U.S. force Grid (Meta-R-320) Metatech corporation (January 2010); FERC Interagency illustrate by James Gilbert, John Kappenman, William Radasky, and Edward Savage, The Late-Time (E3) High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) and Its collision above the U.S. force Grid (Meta-R-321) Metatech corporation (January 2010).
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