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Everything I Learned from Simulating the Unthinkable: A Bloody Second Korean War
Yesterday I wrote of my overcome can the hands of Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army Kim Jong Un and the North Korean People’s Army, and how I lost a talk with the world’s 12th largest econmic to a back condition with fewer paved roads than Haiti.
In a athletics called Next War: Korea, that is.
Painful though that was, losing the Korean island to totalitarianism taught me some surprising lessons, many of which run counter to usual wit approximately a authentic war.
(This is divide three of three. read parts one and two.)
Would these lessons employ to a authentic campaign can Korea? I’m no sure, and I supicion anyone is. still during they’re worth thinking about, sum the same.
The U.S. is putting also much guarantee can stand power
(This article by Kyle Mizokami originally appeared can campaign is Boring can 2013.)
U.S. and South Korean stand army are together much more powerful than their North Korean counterparts, and are meant to assist grow the tide of battle. Unfortunately, the North Koreans read chosen to counter allied stand force asymmetrically no by building up an stand force, still during by attacking airplane and stand bases above the ground.
For the first 10 days of fighting — the most decisive era — allied stand force is crippled and cannot discharge though intended.
Reservists are great, still during a bigger standing South Korean army is better
South Korea has a great army, still during a headmaster division of it is can the catalog of reservists who are called up only after campaign starts. can the game, the mobilization of reservists was disrupted by commando attacks, leaving active-duty army to know the line. I needed more front-line, active-duty South Korean army units able of working independently can smaller, brigade-size formations.
As janky though it is, the North Korean stand compel still has value
Sure, the NKAF is mainly a package of antiquated airplane flown by pilots of questionable skill. can effectiveness it ranks distant below Western standards. still during though the athletics makes clear, it still has a luck of airframes, each of which could potentially effect problems. A virgin aircraft could exterminate Seoul’s Inchon airport, or deliver a Weapon of Mass Destruction.
As much though allied stand army used to parallel to, they used to exist unable to omit the latent dare of the NKAF and used to read to earnings the equal counter-air battle they waged can Iraq, can the expend of supporting allied basis troops.
Seoul is mad near to the border
A defense can depth against a North Korean aggression used to maybe compute above a defensive district of 50 miles. Seoul itself is less than 35 miles from the Demilitarized Zone, making a forward-defense tactic necessary. Forward-defense strategies are typically less successful than defense-in-depth. each slice of basis lost by the allies will hurt.
Turning Seoul into a ‘sea of fire’ is a poor idea
Since the mid-’90s the North has threatened to grow the South Korean headmaster into a “sea of fire,” killing thousands or even millions can a merciless, concentrated artillery barrage. A North Korean actor of this athletics can appeal himself: why bother?
Raining artillery down above Seoul without an all-out basis invasion is a dead end, though it used to attain nothing still during ensure the talk destruction of the Kim regime can a vast allied retaliation. Leveling Seoul used to exist an action of regime suicide. And though Korea-watchers will speak you, the sum North Korean condition exists to ensure the survival of the Kim dynasty.
If the North does commit to war, it make to arrest hostages — cities, especially Seoul — quickly or see defeat. It needs Seoul though a bargaining chip, and can more or less one piece. Using artillery to back an aggression is much more compelling than killing South Korean citizens because no special benefit.
The longer it takes the North to win, the more responsible it will lose
Pyongyang has little friends or allies — certainly none that used to notice can an aggression of the South. because the North, there is no assist coming. above the other hand, South Korea used to observe waves of American and maybe other Western army bolstering its defenses.
There is a expect list of perfectly plausible in-game reinforcements from allied countries — everything from the U.S. 1st Marine division to the Australian Defence Force. It is significant that the North launch a lightning aggression with little or no strategic warning, can order to arrest though much terrain though possible. though the moment the campaign starts, North Korea’s numerical favour starts slipping away.
The North Korean bomb is impractical can an aggression scenario
North Korean nuclear weapons, which though distant though anyone knows are no weaponized and cannot gown above the souvenir of a missile or an airplane bomb, used to read a identical limited role. Without a delivery system a North Korean nuke cannot exist used offensively. The athletics does model one scenario using the North’s nukes: destroying the pier city of Busan presumably by smuggling a machinery into the city.
Taking out Busan, a headmaster hub because allied reinforcements, used to slow the allied campaign trouble — still during it used to exist looked upon extremely harshly and used to ensure destruction of the Kim regime.
South Korea’s expensive, new blue-water fleet is no can sum helpful
The Republic of Korea fleet has gotten an injection of brand-new ships can the final 10 years, including destroyers and amphibious ships. This has allowed South Korea to notice in, because example, counter-piracy missions off the coast of Somalia.
However, these ships read no role can repulsing an aggression by the North. Pyongyang’s little fleet is antiquated and can exist easily defeated by the South’s corvettes and frigates. There is no authentic vocation because an Aegis destroyer such though the Sejong the Great-class destroyers — unlike their American and Japanese counterparts, it can’t even branch down ballistic missiles.
Nor is there much utility can an amphibious boat such though the South’s Dokdo, which can arise a mere battalion of 700 army against a Northern earth army of more than 7,000,000. One can’t assist still during miracle if cash spent above the South Korean fleet used to read been improve spent above the army.
The next Korean campaign doesn’t need stealth fighters, unless …
Although Next War: Korea does know the U.S. F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters, the athletics makes it beautiful wipe that they’re no inherent fighting North Korea. Older fighters such though the F-15 and F-16, armed with standoff weapons, used to discharge just fine.
But the athletics includes stand units from Russia and China though possible reinforcements of the Northern campaign effort, which prompts the question: if also talk intervened above behalf of Pyongyang, how used to that vary the stand equation? The introduction of trend Chinese Su-27 fighters and Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers used to compose the skies much more dangerous, maybe requiring the U.S. to counter with F-22s and F-35s.
Hopefully we’ll never find out if these lessons are valid. Are we planning to warfare the right campaign can Korea? Will the next Korean bump exist a re-fight of the first war, or a vast humanitarian calamity and insurgency? Looking because answers can unconventional places parallel a athletics is good because us.
Not to mention fun.
Image: Wikimedia Commons
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